Predicted Range

Models forecast an overall widespread increase of risk of mosquito vector-borne diseases due to an increase in suitable climate needed for disease transmission. Disease incidence is expected to be most drastic at the boarders of regions currently experiencing epidemic outbreaks of vector-borne diseases.  Not all regions will experience such an increase since climate change may make climate less suitable for disease transmission. Climate change in tropical regions of Africa may actually cause a decrease in the spread of Malaria for example due to a decrease in precipitation; making transmission more difficult. However, some concern has been raised that even in areas with less rainfall (less suitable breeding grounds) human open water-storage in developing nations may still provided areas for breeding.

According to the WHO:

-       If global temperatures increase by 2 to 3°C, as expected, it is estimated that the population at risk for malaria will increase by 3 to 5%.

-       On a global level, the numbers of additional people at risk of malaria in 2080 due to climate change is estimated to be 300 and 150 million.
-    Before 1970, nine countries had Dengue outbreaks, currently more than 100 countries are epidemic. 
-    There may be 50-100 million new Dengue infections worldwide every year. 

-       By 2085 climate change will put an estimated 3.5 billion people at risk of dengue fever.